The United States and China have agreed to a 90-day suspension of escalating trade tariffs, offering temporary relief to global supply chains and the air cargo industry, which has been heavily impacted by months of rising trade tensions.
Following a weekend of intensive negotiations, both governments announced that the 125% tariffs imposed since 2 April would be mostly suspended, with each side now maintaining only a 10% base tariff.
However, the U.S. will continue applying a 20% tariff introduced earlier this year in response to the fentanyl crisis, bringing total U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% during the truce period. China will maintain a flat 10% tariff on U.S. imports.
A statement from the White House said the agreement recognised the “importance of their bilateral economic and trade relationship to both countries and the global economy,” and highlighted a shared commitment to a “sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial” partnership.
While the suspension does not reverse the recent removal of the U.S. de minimis exemption—which had allowed low-value parcels from China to enter duty-free—it significantly lowers the tariff burden on those shipments, providing partial relief for e-commerce and logistics operators.
In the weeks leading up to the suspension, businesses rushed to front-load shipments, resulting in well-stocked inventories across key markets. Analysts expect this could cushion near-term disruptions, but uncertainty remains over what will happen once the 90-day period expires.
The air cargo industry, in particular, has expressed concern over the recent tariff escalation and additional customs scrutiny, especially for e-commerce goods. The removal of the de minimis rule had threatened to sharply reduce shipment volumes and cause a capacity glut on major transpacific routes.
“This truce offers much-needed breathing room,” one industry analyst told BBC News, “but the sector remains on edge. The long-term implications for cross-border e-commerce and airfreight capacity planning are still unclear.”
With tariffs reduced from punitive levels (as high as 125%) to a more moderate 30% (US) and 10% (China), air cargo operators can expect a temporary stabilisation in rates:
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Spot rates, which had surged earlier in April due to panic shipping, are likely to flatten or dip slightly in May and June as front-loaded inventory reduces immediate demand.
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Pricing may remain volatile, especially on transpacific lanes, as forwarders reassess demand elasticity under new tariff conditions.
2. Inventory Overhang Could Suppress Near-Term Demand
The rush to front-load shipments ahead of the April tariff hikes means that many retailers and distributors are now sitting on elevated inventory levels:
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This could lead to a temporary slowdown in outbound demand from China in the weeks ahead, particularly for fast-moving consumer goods and electronics.
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Air cargo volumes may remain muted in May, with a potential rebound in late June or July as restocking begins ahead of peak season.
3. E-Commerce Shipments May Partially Recover
The partial relief for low-value shipments (formerly covered under the de minimis exemption) is expected to mitigate—but not eliminate—pressure on e-commerce flows:
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Small parcel volumes from platforms like Temu, Shein, and AliExpress are likely to remain below early-2025 levels, but the reduced tariff burden could prevent a collapse.
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Airlines that had feared a capacity surplus from lost e-commerce volumes may now experience a more manageable adjustment, especially if traditional bellyhold capacity from passenger services continues to rise.
