Global air cargo volumes fell sharply in mid-February as factories across China and much of East and South East Asia closed for the Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays.
According to the latest weekly data from WorldACD Market Data, worldwide chargeable weight dropped by 16% in week 8 (16–22 February), following a 5% fall the previous week. Over the key holiday period, tonnages declined by around 20% after six consecutive weeks of growth.
The seasonal slowdown is typical for LNY, but this year’s contraction appears steeper than in 2025, when volumes fell by about 13% around the holiday period. Analysts noted that last year’s market was influenced by pre-loading ahead of anticipated US tariff and de minimis rule changes, making comparisons less straightforward.
Asia Pacific demand plunges 33%
The sharpest fall was recorded in the Asia Pacific region. After a modest 3% week-on-week dip in the run-up to LNY on 17 February, outbound volumes from Asia Pacific origins plunged 33% in week 8.
That left demand 20% below the same period last year, when tonnages had already begun recovering following an earlier LNY in 2025.
Freight forwarders reported that pre-holiday demand was relatively muted this year. Despite the drop in volumes, capacity remained tight in some markets, particularly from China, due to flight cancellations linked to the holiday period.
Rates hold firm despite volume slide
Average rates from Asia Pacific origins edged down just 1% week on week to $3.05 per kilo, still 6% higher than a year earlier, based on a mix of contract and spot rates.
Globally, average air freight rates slipped 4% week on week to $2.38 per kilo, but remained 2% higher year on year.
Spot rates from Asia Pacific fell more noticeably, declining 5% week on week to $3.49 per kilo, although they were still marginally above last year’s levels. The easing in Asia Pacific spot pricing was the main driver behind a 4% week-on-week drop in global average spot rates.
Ramadan supports Middle East flows
This year, Ramadan began on the same day as LNY, 17 February, creating overlapping seasonal dynamics.
Chargeable weight from the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region peaked in early February at 17% above last year’s levels, before softening to remain 10% higher year on year in week 8.
Volumes to Europe and the US have been particularly strong from Dubai, India and Bangladesh over the past three weeks.
Spot rates from MESA origins rose 4% week on week in week 8 to $2.55 per kilo, though they remained 9% below the elevated levels seen a year earlier. On routes from Dubai to Europe, spot prices jumped 21% week on week, pushing average MESA–Europe rates up 6%.
Fresh US tariff uncertainty
Beyond seasonal factors, new volatility may be emerging from changes to US trade policy.
After the US Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, President Donald Trump introduced a temporary 10% global tariff, set to expire on 24 July, and indicated it could rise to 15%.
An executive order also maintains the suspension of de minimis exemptions, although revised rules will apply to postal shipments, which will face the temporary 10% tariff until it expires or new customs processes are introduced.
Market analysts say it remains unclear how these measures will affect US-bound air cargo flows, but warn that further uncertainty over tariffs could prompt renewed front-loading or sudden shifts in demand in the months ahead.
