November’s air cargo growth continues the upward trend identified in recent months. September and October’s demand levels increased by 3% and 4% year-on-year respectively. The market is on track to deliver +4% growth in 2025, ahead of what looks to be a more challenging 2026.
Capacity expansion in November matched demand, although supply chain growth remained slower. Despite a gradual rebalancing of supply and demand, global cargo spot rates have yet to fall significantly. However, the year-on-year decline widened to 5% in November, from 3% in October, to US$2.73 per kg.
Air cargo spot rates lower across all major lanes
Across all major trade lanes, corridor-level air cargo spot rates in November were lower than a year earlier. The Europe–North America corridor registered its first year-on-year decline, with rates down 8%. This faster deceleration compares with the global average fall of 5%.
Northeast Asia was more resilient. An agile redeployment of freighter capacity from the transpacific to the Asia–Europe market helped smooth overall air cargo yields.
Southeast Asia, by contrast, suffered double digit declines. This likely reflects a combination of increased carrier capacity deployed to chase nearing 50% demand growth.
November’s market performance was better than indicators suggested earlier this year.
Actual US tariffs not as bad as feared
“We are now seeing studies on the impact of actual implemented US tariffs and despite all the noise, the global average seems to be in the 10-12% range and not the 30, 40, 50 or 100% levels that were threatened in April,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer.
“So, while the impact is there and it is unsettling for the airfreight market, it’s not as dramatic as was feared.”
The situation is likely to change next year as some shippers have absorbed the price increases and are yet to pass them onto consumers.
Van de Wouw said that latest data for the air cargo market’s demand over the past two years is concerning.
“After two years in which the growth of air cargo has been so reliant on e-commerce, there is now a question mark over demand for cargo capacity in the coming year.
“The indicators suggest it will be very difficult to maintain – and we’re already starting to pick up on flattish growth of ecommerce year-on-year.”
Flat growth for China’s cross-border e-commerce
China’s total cross border e-commerce sales flatlined in October. Despite strong development in volumes to Europe, the 51% drop in shipments to the US offset any growth.
Europe could also be impacted by increasing regulation, with the EU set to introduce its own accelerated de-minimis reform in 2026 to close loopholes exploited by low-value shipments.
The EU handled around 4.6 billion such parcels in 2024, with up to 65% believed to be undervalued. 91% of all e-commerce shipments to the EU valued under €150 ($175) came from China. In a similar way to the US in 2025, the EU is now aiming to curb undervaluation and level the playing field for domestic retailers.
Modest low single-digit demand growth in 2026
The air cargo industry heads into 2026 with modest expectations and single-digit growth for the year ahead.
“We expect supply to grow more than demand in 2026, and that will have an impact on rates,” said van de Wouw. “I also do not think low, single-digit demand growth will satisfy the appetite and ambition of freight forwarders.
“We’re also starting to see airlines coming to Xeneta to get a better understanding of shipper rates to validate what forwarders are telling them. Right now, the consensus is the market will do well to achieve demand growth of 2-3% in 2026.”
