Worldwide air cargo volumes fell by 3% in the week to 12 October as national holidays across Asia slowed activity, according to the latest figures from WorldACD Market Data.
The decline in week 41 followed China’s extended ‘Golden Week’ holiday, as well as national celebrations in Taiwan and South Korea, which reduced airfreight capacity and demand across the Asia-Pacific region.
Tonnages from Asia-Pacific origins were down 9% week on week, with shipments from China and Hong Kong falling by 13% and 6%, respectively.
Taiwan also saw a 10% drop in volumes due to its National Day holidays on 9–10 October, while South Korean tonnages plunged 46% as the Chuseok and Hangeul holidays coincided.
Without these seasonal disruptions, WorldACD estimates that global tonnage growth would have been slightly positive, up around 1% week on week.
Despite the slowdown, combined global volumes for the last two weeks were still 4% higher than in the same period last year, even though this year’s Chinese holiday lasted a day longer.
Shipments from Asia-Pacific to the US fell 11% week on week, slightly more than those to Europe (down 9%). Exports from China to the US declined 11%, leaving volumes 6% below 2024 levels.
Falling China–US rates
Air cargo spot rates from China to the US fell for a second consecutive week, down 7% to US$4.07 per kilo, now 20% below the same week last year.
By contrast, rates from Hong Kong to the US were more stable, slipping only 1% week on week and remaining 2% higher year on year, despite a 19% decline in tonnage compared with 2024.
The drop in Hong Kong volumes continues to reflect weaker e-commerce exports following the removal of ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value goods entering the US.
Market analysts say new US tariff hikes on Chinese imports, due next month, could prompt shippers to front-load cargo to avoid higher duties.
However, WorldACD said there was no evidence of any demand surge during the week of 6–12 October, as the tariff announcement came only on 10 October in response to China’s restrictions on rare-earth exports.
Meanwhile, higher US tariffs on Indian goods appear to be impacting trade flows. Exports from India to the US fell by 4% for the second week running, while tonnages from India to Europe rose 6% week on week.
