Boeing: Air cargo traffic to double by 2043 as emerging markets drive growth

Boeing’s 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) anticipates robust long-term growth for the air cargo sector, with air cargo traffic expected to increase by an average of 4% annually through 2043.

Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing said: “As the quickest and most reliable way to move goods, air cargo’s sustained growth has returned the industry to its long-term trend.

“There will be many drivers for continued freighter demand over the next 20 years, including expansion of emerging markets and global growth in manufacturing and e-commerce.”

Key insights from the report underscore a projected increase in the global air cargo fleet to 3,900 airplanes, marking a two-thirds growth from 2023’s fleet size of 2,340 freighters.

Demand is particularly strong in Asia, with East and South Asia leading in traffic growth due to expanding economies and surging consumer demand.

Asia-Pacific carriers are expected to nearly triple their fleet, requiring 980 new deliveries, with North American carriers closely following with 955.

Together, these regions will constitute more than two-thirds of total global freighter deliveries.

Additionally, India’s domestic market is set to grow nearly fourfold, spurred by a rapidly developing e-commerce and express logistics sector.

In terms of market segments, express carriers—driven by the rising need for e-commerce distribution—are predicted to handle a quarter of the air cargo market by 2043, up from 18% today.

Boeing’s WACF also indicates that around half of new production and conversions will replace aging freighters, with modern, fuel-efficient models better meeting today’s operational demands.