Air cargo traffic to and from the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region has experienced a sharp decline over the past fortnight, affected by the Eid Al-Adha holiday period and escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, according to the latest data from WorldACD Market Data.
In week 24 (9–15 June), flown tonnages from MESA origins fell by a further 9% week-on-week (WoW), following an 8% drop the previous week due to Eid (6–9 June).
The post-Eid recovery in volumes has been severely hampered by regional unrest, including widespread flight cancellations following direct Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning Friday 13 June.
South Asia and Levant Severely Hit
South Asia saw the steepest decline, with outbound volumes dropping by 13% WoW. Bangladesh and Pakistan were particularly affected, with traffic falling 43% and 30% respectively. Tonnages from the Levant region plummeted 21% WoW, with the disruption accounting for around 12% of the overall MESA decline.
Despite these sharp contractions, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) bucked the trend. Traffic from the UAE rose by 15% WoW, helping to drive overall Gulf regional growth up by 8%.
Notable increases were seen on routes to Africa (+36%), particularly West Africa (+76%) and East Africa (+25%). UAE intra-Gulf traffic also rebounded strongly, rising 51% WoW, including a 107% surge in volumes to Saudi Arabia.
Two-Week Picture Remains Negative
When combining data for weeks 23 and 24, MESA’s overall outbound volumes were down 13% compared with the previous two weeks. This included a 14% drop in traffic to Asia Pacific and an 11% fall to Europe.
Elsewhere, Asia Pacific was the only global origin region to post positive WoW growth in week 24, with outbound tonnages up by 2%. Much of this was driven by a 3% increase from China, primarily from Shanghai (+5%), and a 15% post-holiday rebound in demand from South Korea.
Asia Pacific tonnages to the United States climbed 4% WoW in week 24, recovering after a 10% fall the previous week. China-origin volumes to the US rose 6% WoW, reflecting ongoing volatility in response to shifting US tariff and trade policies.
Rate Trends Remain Mixed
Global average air cargo rates remained broadly steady in week 24 at $2.41 per kilo. Spot rates averaged $2.59 per kilo, down 2% year-on-year (YoY). The steepest YoY declines came from MESA (-22%) and Asia Pacific (-5%). Conversely, spot rates rose YoY from North America (+5%), Africa (+4%), and Central & South America (+2%).
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US slipped 2% WoW, extending a two-week downward trend after a brief rebound in late May. Hong Kong was particularly affected, with spot prices falling 6% WoW after a 12% drop the previous week, nearing $4 per kilo.
The route continues to feel the impact of revised US ‘de minimis’ rules introduced on 2 May, which have increased processing costs and import charges on low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong.
With instability persisting in both geopolitical and regulatory arenas, market analysts suggest continued volatility in global air cargo flows in the weeks ahead.