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Yield falls 3% in May, according to data analyst WorldACD

The worldwide air cargo yield went down to $1.88 in May 2018 – three per cent below April 2018 – but still 14 per cent higher than in May 2017, according to air cargo market data analyst WorldACD.

Measured in Euro’s, the yield increased by one per cent month-over-month (MoM), whilst the year-over-year (YOY) increase was seven per cent.

WorldACD said in its May monthly report: “The development in air cargo in the month of May 2018 confirms a downward growth trend noticed since the start of this year. But growth it is nonetheless, although less than in 2017.”

The analyst said YOY air cargo volume increased by 2.6 per cent worldwide, yield measured in Euro’s by 7.1 per cent and measured in USD by 14.4 per cent. For January through May, the growth was 4.3 per cent.

And the origins Chile (+58%), Japan (+18%), Canada (+17%), and the USA (+5.8%) easily outperformed many other countries. But WorldACD said the growth from the Americas came at a price: YOY USD-yield improvements in the Americas were well below 10 per cent, much lower than elsewhere in the world.

WorldACD said the origins India, Russia and Western Europe all showed negative YOY growth in May. As in previous months, long haul traffic increased more than short haul (three per cent growth in Direct Ton Kilometers, DTKs, vs. 2.6 per cent in weight), whilst specific cargo categories again outpaced general cargo (5.5 per cent vs 1.5 per cent growth).

WorldACD continued: “Yet, the fear of growing protectionism is real, and that fear may well play a role in a shift away from consumption. Will the whole world suffer? To what extent will some regions feel the heat of the trade war (mongering) more than others? Impossible to tell, so let us stick to what we know and see how a number of large economies performed lately.

“For a number of countries, we looked at GDP-developments, as reported by The Economist in its latest issue, relative to air cargo growth. Until 2009, the conventional wisdom was that air cargo roughly grew at twice the rate of GDP-growth. Since the crisis this ratio first dropped from 2:1 to 1:1 and then climbed again gradually. Where does it stand today?”

The market analyst said the above table “clearly shows” that it is no longer possible to use a general ratio between GDP-growth and air cargo growth.

WorldACD added: “Neither is it possible to assume that growth in any geographical area will ‘automatically’ benefit the carriers based in that area. Actually, the contrary appeared to be the case when reviewing growth over the past two years.

“The African carrier group was the only one improving its (small) market share in all regions. So did carriers from Asia Pacific, except in their home area. Carriers from the Americas increased their market share in three regions, but lost share in both North and South America.

“The group of Middle Eastern carriers lost share in three regions, including their home area, and gained in Europe and Latin America. Lastly, the group of European carriers gained share everywhere, except in their home market Europe.

“In other words, the growth in traffic from all areas except Africa, benefited the group of ‘non-home carriers’ more than the group of ‘home carriers’.”